Horse Racing Blogs

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Serial Wagers

06/03/2021

Watch this video to get an idea how I approach serial wages using my sheets. I will do some follow up on this topic at later date where we actually construct tickets.

Over Jocked

05/04/2021

Friend of mine uses this angle heavily and hits some gigantic long shots. This angle happens when the horse has a better jockey on it than it should have. Here is the race snap-shot that inspired this blog. Not a long-shot but the #2 has a 0 trainer and a 7 jockey at 4-1. Gets A+ grade and wins.

PFDS Odds

04/27/2021

This is explained briefly in the tutorial and in other blogs but I want to reiterate it here for clarity sake. PFDS Odds (and BEST Odds) are the two most important columns in my spreadsheet. They are also unique to my website. As such, I continuously strive to improve the algorithms & assumptions for these two factors.

Rank

03/09/2021

I've been wanting to blog about the "RANK" column forever but just kept blowing it off. I'm going to use today's Cigar Mile to talk about it even though this is actually a very difficult race to handicap with an unusual result.

Race Rating

09/11/2020

Under the Distance/Surface (DS) column for each race you'll see a new number. This is the race bet rating. It takes into account the warning signs for a race (see previous blog) and the strength of the best bet inside the race. Strong bets have good ABC letter grades like A/K and good VALUE over $10.

Pace

08/25/2020

I've always had pace analysis in our SHEETS but removed it for simplicity sake. Pace is the "P" in PFDS and is accounted for in the PFDS ODDS but sometimes people want to see the figures for themselves....

Belmont Stakes

08/22/2020

The modified Belmont Stakes is run at 9F today. Why not call it the Wood Memorial which was cancelled? It's not a good betting race because the favorite (Tiz the Law) is legit with a "K" for KILL letter grade and its difficult to decipher between the supporting class if he loses. With that said...

Risky Horses

08/15/2020

As stated in our Winning Streak blog, you want horses with good letter grade (A or K) and good value (>$10) but of course these are hard to find. Let's say you got a C horse with $6 of value that's ranked 3rd (from top) in the sheet. Before you bet...

Some races just are not worth betting or the VALUE we are estimating is wrong and thus you should proceed with caution.

Below you can see that on Thursday 5/28, I had a horrible day at Churchill Downs. It was such a blood bath that I refused to play the track on Friday or Saturday and reluctantly came back expecting to be destroyed on Sunday due to the Pick 5 carryover.