Belmont Stakes

06/20/2020

The modified Belmont Stakes is run at 9F today.  Why not call it the Wood Memorial which was cancelled?  It's not a good betting race because the favorite (Tiz the Law) is legit with a "K" for KILL letter grade and its difficult to decipher between the supporting class if he loses.  With that said...

The pace does not project to be that fast unless Fore Left goes crazy.  I expect Fore Left & Tap it to Win to set a controlled pace up front.  This does not bode well for closers in the race (2,3,5,7,9) who you can toss from the Exacta.

One way to play race is to bet a Partial Exacta Wheel with Tiz the Law over 1,4,6,10 and I think you'll win.  Looking at my sheet the 10 appears over matched and the 1 is getting over bet as the second choice.  The 4,6 come out of Dubai and are high up in my sheets with value.

The other way to play the race is doubles from Race 9 where both the 4 and 7 offer value.  I would scale the doubles based on the payoff to Tiz the Law.  Likely you will be betting about 3x as much on the 4 versus the 7.  

I'm more confident in the Doubles approach then with the Exacta approach.  Good Luck.!