How long will hot streak last?

06/03/2020

In the picture below you can see that on Thursday 5/28, I had a horrible day at Churchill Downs.  It was such a blood bath that I refused to play the track on Friday or Saturday and reluctantly came back expecting to be destroyed on Sunday due to the Pick 5 carryover.

But on Friday a 5 day hot streak began.  All the selections and results can be found on the Past Results page.  I have been profitable for 10 straight race cards since.  There have been multiple 20-1 bombs and many double digits win payoffs.  Separate from the ROI calculation there have been Pick 4 scores and huge Daily Doubles from Santa Anita to Tampa with Lone Star thrown in for good measure.  Most of these selections have been tweeted out!  People are happy.

My overall ROI is an incredibly strong 1.50 through 26 cards.  No other handicapper can claim this!  But Why?  First of all, we've been lucky and we will cool off so let's start there.  But second, we've been disciplined and laser focused on finding value with no distractions. On my sheets you will see a top to bottom sort of the horses in every race; Fair odds for each horse (PFDS/BEST); and a VALUE column when comparing those odds to the morning line.  You'll also find an ABC Letter Grade for the top contenders.  We are betting horses with letter grades AND Value!

Honestly the ROI could be even higher if we were scaling the betting amount to the strength of the selection.  Imagine an X-Y graph.  On the Y-axis is the letter grade from none to a K.  On the X-axis is Value from nothing to $20+.  You want to bet horses that are UP and TO THE RIGHT.  "C" horses with $2 of value are certainly playable and profitable but they are no where near as strong as an "A" horse with $20 of value.  My thumb rule on Value is $5 is good, $10+ is strong!  Watch the tote with me and play horses with strong value.  Let's see if we can keep this streak going another day tomorrow.