Pace

06/23/2020

I've always had pace analysis in our SHEETS but removed it for simplicity sake.  Pace is the "P" in PFDS and is accounted for in the PFDS ODDS but sometimes people want to see the figures for themselves....

But be careful about using the Pace figures.  First of all, don't talk yourself off of a VALUE horse just. because of your analysis of the race shape.  Second, use them if you are playing Trifectas. Handicapping for 3rd is totally different than for 1st and the Pace figures will help.

The Pace column is from Quirin and shows a horse's preferred running style:  E for front runner, P for presser, E/P for either E or P, and S for closer.  The number next to the letter shows the likelihood of horse being on the early lead.  8 is 100% and 0 is 0%.  E & E/P runners dominate dirt races in America.  You can get a good idea for race shape by studying this column.

The ES (early speed) and LS (late speed) columns are an algorithm based on BRISNET EP/LP ratings adjusted for recency, distance, surface & form cycle.  ES is very important in dirt sprints and LS is very important in turf routes.

A horse that can get an easy lead has a distinct advantage and if you can get a price for a horse like that, go for it.  Let me know if you have any questions below.