PFDS Odds

02/25/2021

This is explained briefly in the tutorial and in other blogs but I want to reiterate it here for clarity sake.  PFDS Odds (and BEST Odds) are the two most important columns in my spreadsheet.  They are also unique to my website.  As such, I continuously strive to improve the algorithms & assumptions for these two factors.

When I launched my sheet to the public, I had to clean it up substantially and rename a lot of columns to names that make more intuitive sense.  But I couldn't do that for PFDS Odds.  I wanted this name to stick out like a sore thumb and ultimately I had fallen in love with its meaning and significance.

PFDS Odds means Pace, Fitness, Distance & Surface Odds.  I'm creating a value based odds-line for each horse using the past performance data and then adjusting those odds based on today's conditions.  Theoretically, if a horse goes off at higher odds than PFDS Odds, it is a value bet.

Best Odds using the same mathematical algorithm but it isolates on a single race for the horse (potentially a good back-race hidden from the public).  It is very useful for finding long-shots and horses eligible to improve.

The top to bottom sort in the sheet uses both of these columns plus the Jockey & Trainer data.  This sort does not use the letter grade or the ENERGY score.  Although I think those factors are also important and are certainly solid, they are not unique to my site.

The VALUE score is a mathematical comparison of PFDS or BEST Odds (whichever is lower) to the morning line.  It gives us a quick look at which horses potentially offer value.  In my ROI analysis I suggested a mythical wager on the top 2 horses in a race in the top to bottom sort that had at least $2 of VALUE and a LETTER GRADE.

FYI, the 4th number in the RANK column is PFDS Odds.  The 3rd number in the RANK column is BEST Odds.

The PFDS Odds is not perfect.  Sometimes the algorithm breaks down, especially on lightly raced horses or on horses that are fast and moving up in class.  I discuss this more in my WARNING SIGN RACES blog.  If a race looks confusing on my sheet or no horse is obvious to bet on it is best to pass on the race.

This is why our sheet is a tool to help you wager more effectively not a TOUT site.  Everyone wagers differently and needs to figure out how to couple the information in my site with other handicapping tools that they use.  Let me know how else I can be of assistance.