Risky Horses

06/13/2020

As stated in our Winning Streak blog, you want horses with good letter grade (A or K) and good value (>$10) but of course these are hard to find.  Let's say you got a C horse with $6 of value that's ranked 3rd (from top) in the sheet.  Before you bet...

First make sure the race is not a WARNING SIGN RACE.  If it is exercise caution and scale back your wager.  Second, read the blog about TRAINER SCORE.  This will be helpful in assessing risk on your wager.

But here are specific "risky signs" for a horse:

  1. Horse is coming off a very long layoff (>6 months) for a poor trainer (3+ points lower then the best in race).  The layoff is the number (months of layoff) in the fitness column.
  2. Horse has a "very" poor trainer (6+ points lower then the best in race) with at best an average jockey.
  3. Horse has a PFDS%<0.5 with a poor trainer (3+ points lower then the best in race)
  4. Horse has an ENERGY score 10 points lower than the best in race so horse is slow.
  5. BEST odds is an order of magnitude lower than the PFDS odds.  Ok if it is a long-shot.
  6. BEST odds is significantly higher (2x) the PFDS odds.  This is not a great sign.

We're not saying you shouldn't bet these horses, but you should scale back at the very least.  If your horses doesn't have any of these risky elements, full speed ahead.