Spot Plays ROI
The spot play is a horse that gets a "s" before their letter grade and indicates an especially strong wager for the day. The rules I put in place are different than what I described in Spot Play #1 Blog. I modified the rules for spot plays and its now close to optimum.
The Win ROI is 1.27 (+27%) through 226 races. The Place/Show ROI is 0.88.
The wagering strategy is $100 Win on horses <5-1; $50 WP on horses >= 5-1 and $50 WS on horses >= 10-1 with field size of at least 8. Pass if the surface is "off the turf". Also, if race is sloppy do not bet horse without an E or E/P pace fig. Also, pass spot plays if 2 or more horses get a "s" and/or "+".
Here is Win ROI by bet type: Win +39%, WP -23%, WS +104%%. WS got huge boost by 17-1 shot yesterday. Combining WP with WS together the Win ROI is -5%. Be cautious about the WP which are doing poorly right now.
Here is P/S ROI by bet type: Win N/A, WP -23%, WS +49% showing that show bets on long-shots is better than place bets on medium priced horses. Bottom line, the WS horses are doing quite well at huge odds.
Following the betting guidance above you would have bet $17,800 to Win and would've returned $22,610 for a Win profit of $4,810. Restricting this to <5-1 horses you would've bet $13,000 and returned $18,030. Including the PS wagers the profit drops. You would've bet $22,600 and returned $26,820.
Woodbine is still a struggle for me where I'm unbelievably 0 for 19. Removing WO the Win ROI <5-1 improves to +45%
ROI spreadsheet through 7/24 is posted below. You can see we are posting our plays daily (in advance) and tracking the returns. Best of luck to everyone on these wagers.