Spot Plays - #1
This is a work in progress and will continue to be optimized. At some point I want to have a program that can input spot play criteria and automatically give results. Not there yet and will need programming help to make it happen.
So sometimes a horse just jumps out at me in a race as a good wager and I suspect these are very solid wagers with profitable ROI. Here is the criteria I've come up with. Pass the race if more than 2 horses qualify.
1. Race BETSCORE must be *3* or higher. Also avoid races that are muddy, sloppy, soft, yielding or "off the turf".
2. Expected value of horse must be at least 25%. This is approximately equal to VALUE x M/L ODDS. This threshold is a judgment call but higher is better.
3. Horse must get a letter grade of some sort. "C" is perfectly fine. Obviously "A" is better.
4. Horse must be ranked on top of sheet, get a RANK of "1" or get the "+" designation after its letter grade.
5. Horse must not have warning signs with long layoffs or slow ENERGY
Let's look at an example. Churchill Downs 6/24 Race #1. I could've picked a more impressive race but that's not my intention. Just grabbed this one because it works and was yesterday.
So the race BETSCORE is *3* on 1st check. The 1,4 & 7 all qualify on 2nd check. Only the 1 & 4 qualify on 3rd check. The 1 & 4 both qualify on 4th check as well.
The #4 does have some added weakness in the 7 month layoff and the 76 for ENERGY but at 18-1. You may decide to bet this horse but he is eliminated from the Spot Play criteria.
For serial wagers you also have to include the #3 who is a solid favorite with the K grade.
Here is the result: #1 wins and pays $10. #3 is 2nd. #4 was up close early and tired.