Spot Plays - #1

06/25/2021

This is a work in progress and will continue to be optimized.  At some point I want to have a program that can input spot play criteria and automatically give results.  Not there yet and will need programming help to make it happen.

So sometimes a horse just jumps out at me in a race as a good wager and I suspect these are very solid wagers with profitable ROI.  Here is the criteria I've come up with.  Pass the race if more than 2 horses qualify.

1.  Race BETSCORE must be *3* or higher.  Also avoid races that are muddy, sloppy, soft, yielding or "off the turf".

2. Expected value of horse must be at least 25%.  This is approximately equal to VALUE x M/L ODDS.  This threshold is a judgment call but higher is better.

3. Horse must get a letter grade of some sort.  "C" is perfectly fine.  Obviously "A" is better.

4. Horse must be ranked on top of sheet, get a RANK of "1" or get the "+" designation after its letter grade.

5. Horse must not have warning signs with long layoffs or slow ENERGY

Let's look at an example.  Churchill Downs 6/24 Race #1.  I could've picked a more impressive race but that's not my intention.  Just grabbed this one because it works and was yesterday.

So the race BETSCORE is *3* on 1st check.  The 1,4 & 7 all qualify on 2nd check.  Only the 1 & 4 qualify on 3rd check.  The 1 & 4 both qualify on 4th check as well. 

The #4 does have some added weakness in the 7 month layoff and the 76 for ENERGY but at 18-1.  You may decide to bet this horse but he is eliminated from the Spot Play criteria.  

For serial wagers you also have to include the #3 who is a solid favorite with the K grade.

Here is the result:  #1 wins and pays $10.  #3 is 2nd.  #4 was up close early and tired.