2020 Oaks & Derby

I'll be posting the sheets, private videos & exotic wagering analysis on this page for both the Oaks & Derby




OAKS DAY RACE ANALYSIS:  WITH RESULTS! (derby day is down below)

R1) Hard to trust 5 at first asking.  7 capable of improving & 9 can make impression first out.    A-5,7 B-9 C-2,3.   RESULT: 4-5-8

R2) Pass this race.  9 working well.  B-9 C-ALL  RESULT: 6-9-4

R3) This is not a good betting race.  4 is an underlaid contender.  B-2,4, C-ALL.  RESULT:  1-2-3

R4) 6 is most likely winner (possible single).  1 offers a little value and is fast enough.                A-6 B-1 C-3,8.   RESULT: 3-8-6

R5) Another bad betting race.  8 has good works.  11 has a good race to run back to.                B-8,11 C-ALL.  RESULT: 8-10-6

R6) 7 gets a K at good odds.  6 been running against top competition.  A-7 B-8 C-5,6.   RESULT: 5-7-8

R7) Wide open race.  6,8 logical.  A-6,8 C-7,9.  RESULT: 6-7-8 

R8) 1 is much the fastest - single.  5 gets good pace set-up.  A-1 C-5,7.  RESULT:  5-7-2

R9) Boring race.  3 most likely winner.  A-3 C-2,8. RESULT: 3-2-4

R10) Great race.  Five horses separated by two points on Energy.  Tough to bet though.  2 figures as the favorite.  5,6 been running against best horses in America.  3 will close and maybe take a spot underneath.  B-2,5,6 C-1,3.  RESULT: 6-3-1

R11) 8 is best horse and possible single.  1 is next best with some value.  7 is too slow but a good long-shot.  A-8 B-1 C-2,7.  RESULT: 8-7-1

R12) OAKS:  5 is freakish fast but stretching out (PFDS% of 0.7).  1 has shipped and won everywhere.  1 or 5 will win this race.  They may run 1-2 the whole way and in that case 1 saves 2 lengths of ground.  4 is wise guy horse that could hit board but no value.  3 coming off long layoff but can fire fresh at big odds.  7 is a long-shot underneath.  Trifecta:  1,5 w 1,5 w 3,4,7     A-1,5 C-3,4,7.  RESULT: 7-1-5

R13) 1 may be best bet on the whole card.  5 is other horses that can win but no value.  Value for the 2 with inside draw. 8 is a live long-shot  A-1 B-5 C-2,8.  RESULT: 1-5-8


R1) Don't trust 4 off the layoff, 1 is most likely winner, A-1 B-4 C-5.  RESULT: 3-5-4

R2) Tough race.  5 working strongly for debut,  1 will improve in his comeback.  A-1,5 B-6 C-2,7. RESULT: 7-5-1

R3) 6 is most likely winner, watch the tote.  7 fits and has pace to run at.  Several others could improve significantly.  A-6 B-7 C-2,4,5.  RESULT: 4-6-2

R4) Pass race. 5 makes sense.  Not much else to go on.  A-5 C-ALL.  RESULT: 5-12-4

R5) 5,8 make sense but no value.  Watch tote.  11 working well.  9 long-shot but slow.               A-5,8 B-10,11 C-9.  RESULT: 8-11-5

R6) 6 is most likely winner.  11 is fast but an underlay.  2,3 make sense at good prices.  12 is a long-shot off a long layoff.  A-6 B-2,3 C-11,12.  RESULT: 2-3-6

R7) 10 selects this better spot.  9 is fast but coming off long layoff.  4,7 fit at good prices.  5 working strong and could improve.  12 is an underlay (toss).  A-10 B-4,7 C-5,9.  RESULT: 9-10-8

R8) Good pace set-up for 4.  5,8 make sense but will be battling on the lead.  A-4 B-5,8.  RESULT: 8-1-4

R9) The 1 (underlay favorite) got scratched.  9 is a good bet.  2,6 could also win.  A-9 B-2,6.  RESULT: 9-8-6

R10) Like this 3 a lot, good bet.  10 is fast & makes sense as strong favorite.  7 offers some value underneaths.  A-3,10 C-7.  RESULT: 2-8-3

R11) Another great betting race & like the 3 again.  4 is strong but price is way too short.  2 makes sense underneath.  A-3,4 C-2.  RESULT: 6-4-7

R12) Really good graded stakes with six horses within two points on energy.  Don't have a strong opinion at all.  Pace may be strong and set-up for 6.  8,9,10 all can win but provide no value.  A-6 B-8,9,10.  RESULT: 4-8-6

R13) Another good race with several Chad Brown trainees.  My preference is the 8 with the strong late kick.  1,2,3,4 all can contend.  A-8 B-1,2 C-3,4.  RESULT: 4-1-3

R14) DERBY: 17 is a lock to win. 18 got drilled by 16 and barely held off 15 going 9F.  Toss the 18. 10 beat 16 in a four horse field.  No thanks on the 10.  16 makes sense but is the second favorite in a huge field so need to look elsewhere for value under neath.  15 has strong record and can hit the board again here.  12 bounced off short rest and has been training lights out on the grass and will close strongly to get into trifecta.  2 can improve for Asmussen and gets perfect post to save ground and close strongly.  Many wise guy horses out there like the 4 that I can't touch.  3 will be closing as well but think he gets a wide trip and just misses the board, could use in Superfectas though.  A-17 C-2,12,15,16.  RESULT: 18-17-9