This is explained briefly in the tutorial and in other blogs but I want to reiterate it here for clarity sake. PFDS Odds (and BEST Odds) are the two most important columns in my spreadsheet. They are also unique to my website. As such, I continuously strive to improve the algorithms & assumptions for these two factors.
Horse Racing Videos & Blogs
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Woodbine 8/30/20 Race 7
Parx 8/17/20 Race 3
Saratoga 8/1/20 Race 6
Saratoga 7/29/20 Race 7
Indiana 7/28/20 Race 7
Delaware 7/27/20 Race 6
Eddie Read 2020
San Diego Handicap 2020
Saratoga 7/24/20 Race 8
Saratoga 07/23/20 Race 7
Peter Pan 2020
Keeneland Bluegrass Stakes 2020
Keeneland 7/10/20 Race 6
Keeneland 7/9/20 Race 5
Indiana Oaks & Derby 2020
Ohio Derby 2020
Churchill Downs 6/26/20 Race 8
Stephen Foster day video part 1
Stephen Foster day video part 2
Click on the blog titles to see the full blog...
I've been wanting to blog about the "RANK" column forever but just kept blowing it off. I'm going to use today's Cigar Mile to talk about it even though this is actually a very difficult race to handicap with an unusual result.
Under the Distance/Surface (DS) column for each race you'll see a new number. This is the race bet rating. It takes into account the warning signs for a race (see previous blog) and the strength of the best bet inside the race. Strong bets have good ABC letter grades like A/K and good VALUE over $10.
I've always had pace analysis in our SHEETS but removed it for simplicity sake. Pace is the "P" in PFDS and is accounted for in the PFDS ODDS but sometimes people want to see the figures for themselves....
The modified Belmont Stakes is run at 9F today. Why not call it the Wood Memorial which was cancelled? It's not a good betting race because the favorite (Tiz the Law) is legit with a "K" for KILL letter grade and its difficult to decipher between the supporting class if he loses. With that said...
As stated in our Winning Streak blog, you want horses with good letter grade (A or K) and good value (>$10) but of course these are hard to find. Let's say you got a C horse with $6 of value that's ranked 3rd (from top) in the sheet. Before you bet...
Some races just are not worth betting or the VALUE we are estimating is wrong and thus you should proceed with caution.
Below you can see that on Thursday 5/28, I had a horrible day at Churchill Downs. It was such a blood bath that I refused to play the track on Friday or Saturday and reluctantly came back expecting to be destroyed on Sunday due to the Pick 5 carryover.
The trainer score is very important and can be combined with other items:
I want to provide some general information about how to bet a race using this data. This data can be used effectively for exotic wagers (exactas, daily doubles), serial wagers (P4, P6), tournament selections and of course simple win, place, show. It is most effective on a race by race basis where you can compare the horse tote odds to...