Derby Future #3
Let's look at the next Future wager coming up this weekend. Going to look at each horse individually and try to identify where there is value. I'm defining value as a horse that can make the KY derby field at much lower odds than in this wager. Many of the individual betting interests below will not even make the starting gate so we must look for big prices.
1. Caddo River - This horse got over bet in the last Future wager & likely will again this weekend. Won Smarty Jones with a short stretch but the time was the same as NW1x winner a race later. The final furlong run in a slow :25.3. Wait on this one.
2. Candy Man Rocket - Just won Sam Davis stakes without LASIX after being bet down to 3-1. Final time of 1:44.1 is not quick and they were coming home slow. BRIS speed figure regressed 10 points off 6F maiden win. Not sure pedigree is a fit for 10F either. Like this one less than Caddo River.
3. Concert Tour - This was my favorite Baffert horse in last Future wager & has 7F stakes win since then. Still has not routed and they are playing catch-up. The West family sold Life is Good for $500K+ but kept this one. A good bet if odds go up from 20-1 which is unlikely.
4. Dream Shake - Breaks maiden in Feb going 6.5F with LASIX on. Not sure Twirling Candy is a 10F sire but did like the way the horse won that race. You need at least 40-1 to bet this horse.
5. Essential Quality - This horse is legitimate & on top of our sheet but went off at 6-1 in last future wager. Runs Monday in freezing weather at Oaklawn. Wait and hope he loses before betting him in next Future wager.
6. Fire at Will - Still don't like this horse despite a lot of buzz recently. Expect the odds to drop off the 50-1 morning line. Horse has a turf pedigree and has never raced on dirt.
7. Freedom Fighter - This horse lost to Concert Tour at a distance of 7F. He has a sprint pedigree & is a toss.
8. Greatest Honor - Liked this horse a lot in last Future Wager if he went off at >30-1 and he did (40-1). Unfortunately he will go off a lot lower now with very impressive Holy Bull victory and is a pass in this round.
9. Highly Motivated - Still think this one is over rated off his 2yo form going 6.5F. Work-outs this year are nothing to write home about. You would need at least 40-1 to make a bet and won't get it.
10. Hot Rod Charlie - Really liked this one in last future wager at 40-1. Not getting a lot of respect off 2nd place finish in BC Juvenile at 94-1. But connections are solid and 3rd place effort in Robert Lewis is better than it looks with a rough trip finishing in between horses late. This horse has guts but you would need 40-1 to play him again. Watch the tote.
11. Jackie's Warrior - Last future pool was the place to bet this one at 24-1. Was the KY Derby favorite before the BC Juvenile and then tired badly. If you can get 20-1 or more again, it's still a good play. Horse has every right to rebound and improve his 3yo season which would make him a favorite again. Nice works in February by a trainer that doesn't fire bullets. Watch the tote.
12. Keepmeinmind - 19-1 was too low for this colt in last future wager. Certainly no better than Hot Rod Charlie who should be a higher price. Has a nice bullet 5F work on 2/2.
13. Life is Good - Sham win was probably better than it looked and horse is still firing off 6F works for Bullet Bob. But price is still way too low.
14. Mandaloun - Also running in Risen Star after losing to Midnight Bourbon with no excuses. No thanks.
15. Medina Spirit - Very game win in Robert Lewis hurts his value. Did go the shortest distance around the track so future races will be tougher. Beat Hot Rod Charlie who was coming off the layoff. Pass right now.
16. Midnight Bourbon - Still neutral on this one and no value running in the Risen Star (a tougher test).
17. Nova Rags - No excuse in slow Sam Davis.
18. Prevalence - Horse is getting serious buzz off fast 7F maiden win at GP. But why did he run with LASIX? Price will be too low.
19. Risk Taking - Really nice win in Withers last weekend which means no value this week. You need at least 20-1 to back this one.
20. Roman Centurion - This horse ran really well in Robert Lewis but that was 3rd race of form cycle so horse could plateau now. Very strong pedigree and good running style. Playable at 40-1.
21. Senor Buscador - Was a great bet at 34-1 in Future Wager #1 but now runs this weekend in Risen Star. So just watch him this week and hope he wins again. This is still my favorite horse in Triple Crown field but needs to provide it without LASIX.
22. Swiftsure - Another new shooter in this round of the Future Wager. But both wins at 6F and dam side is sprint oriented (Speightstown). Both wins also with LASIX. Wait and see.
23. The Great One - Got beaten by Spielburg who was destroyed in Robert Lewis. Came back with huge win to break maiden but time was slow. Heavily raced and a cut below. No thanks.
Bottom Line - This round of the Future Wager is less playable. The horses we liked in first round are going to go off lower odds this time or are racing this weekend. You have odds to target in my comments above. My top pick is still Senor Buscador and Jackie's Warrior is still playable >20-1. Will make further comments below after reviewing the odds Sunday AM.