Focused on value and fair odds
This proprietary horse race handicapping program has been in existence for nearly 30 years. In the photo above you will see a screen shot from Keeneland 7/11/20 Race 6 where we hit the trifecta ice cold (13-10-8) for $1,415 with a $22 horse on top.
Let me explain the screen shot column by column
"DS" - This is the distance and surface of the race. The distance is in furlongs and the surface is either (D-Dirt, T-Turf or A-Synthetic). Under the distance & surface is a race betting score from 0-5. See blog about Race Rating for details but a 4 or 5 score is a great race to bet on while a 0 or 1 is a race you should pass.
"True M/L" - This is a mathematical adjustment of the morning line to adjust for scratches & inconsistencies from race to race. It is color coded to quickly identify value in race. Green and Blue horse are where you should focus for tournament selections.
"Fitness" - Shows a Q or N proprietary workout rating followed by months of layoff. Q is a qualified horse, N is not. The Q or N workout score is factored into the PFDS % (see below). The number after the letter is the months of layoff. A layoff of 3 months starts a new form cycle.
"Form Cycle" - Tells you if the horse is making its first start off a long layoff or it's the second/third start off a long layoff. This also applies to first time, second time, third time starters in their career. Horses with a "23" form cycle are eligible to improve.
"Trainer" & "Jockey" - These are proprietary scores for the trainer & jockey. The trainer score accounts for stats particular to the type of horse running in today's race. See blog about Trainer. Higher is better for these scores and a delta of 3 points is significant.
"Pace" - See blog about Pace. Tells you the horse's best running style and likelihood of getting the lead.
"ES" & "LS" - See blog about Pace. These are early speed and late speed pace ratings.
"Energy" - Proprietary measure of speed for the horse. A delta of 5 points is significant.
"PFDS %" - Looks at how well the horse fits the race from a pace, fitness, distance and surface standpoint. A score <0.5 is not good and can be an eliminator for horses with short odds. A score of 1.0 or greater represents a horse that fits this race perfectly.
"PFDS odds" & "Best odds" - These are the most important columns on the sheet. They are fair value odds calculations. "PFDS odds" is our original system that takes into account all the horses past performances. "Best odds" looks for a single race in the horses past that may be a better indicator of success than it's most recent races.
"Value" - Compares PFDS odds & Best odds with the True morning line to tell you which horses are the best bets in the race or even entire card. Higher value is better with a score greater then $10 being significant.
"Rank" - Looks at 5 different aspects of my program and tells you which horses rank 1-3.
"ABC" - This ranking looks at everything on the sheet with speed being an important factor. This is the best indicator for most likely winners in the race. Occasionally a horse will be so strong it will get a "K" for KILL rating. These horses will win at a high rate and are good single candidates in horizontal wagering.
The PLUS sign "+" after the ABC letter grade is the best horse to bet on based on both the ABC letter grade and the VALUE score.
The horse's are sorted in each race from top to bottom in order of preference. The PFDS odds and Best odds are major factors in the sort. The ABC letter grade is not included in this sort and may disagree with the sort.