See below for a detailed tutorial explanation of the screen shot above
TUTORIAL VIDEOS (more to come)
Focused on value and fair odds
Banner screen shot is for Churchill 6/10/26 Race 5. #3 Angel of Marin wins at 17-1!
Let me explain the banner screen shot column by column
Header - Track, Race, Post Time, Distance, Surface, Condition (if available), Type, CONF, Pace
CONF - Confidence on betting a horse to win in the race. Scale from 0 to 5.
Pace - Scored from 0 to 10. 10 is hot.
#/Horse - Number of horse followed by name
GRD - Letter grade. This is modeled so "K" horses will win ~40% of time; "A" horses ~25%; "B" horses ~17%; "C" horses ~12%. ROI drops substantially for "C" and "X" horses. Horses under 10% modeled win probability get a "X". Approximately 20% of field should get a "X". Horses can get upgraded based on some angles discussed below. There is a new PLUS "+" algorithm to identify horses with profitable ROI. This algorithm is subject to change as we analyze.
W% - Very important column. Modeled Win Probability. All factors tie into this depending on the horse's experience and form cycle. The horse's are sorted in each race from top to bottom based on Win %.
AML - This is the adjusted morning line odds after scratches. It is color coded based on odds groupings in the Excel file to quickly identify value in race (<5/2 Orange, <5/1 Yellow, <10/1 Green, <20/1 Blue and >20/1 Pink). Going to investigate creating a projected post time odds field.
FOD - Fair Odds. This is converted from W%.
VAL - Value of horse comparing FOD to AML. Higher is better and highlighted in green if 10+ and Yellow if 2+. Value of 5-8 is a sweet spot. This is a critical column to generate positive ROI and why the tool is called Charting Horse Value.
L3 - Finish position of last 3 races. Helps you quickly see how inexperienced horses could be. The ">" and "<" mean horse is stretching out or cutting back. This does get factored into some pace analytic bonuses. The asterisk means horse is on a new track and is unproven when shipping.
ST/Q - This is the preferred running style and Quirin points for the horse. Tells you the likeliness horse gets the lead. Factored into the Pace analysis
ES or LS - Projected early and late speed. Gets factored into the Pace analysis. For all projected figures, the top score is in green. 2nd and 3rd best is in yellow.
ENY - Energy rating is average of ES and LS for most races. Turf routes emphasize LS. Our version of how fast the horse is.
PFIG - Projected performance figure based on how well horse has performed in recent races.
BFIG - Best possible performance figure. Horse might improve to previous performance based on conditions (distance & surface) or horse's form cycle. If applicable BFIG can trigger a GRD upgrade for long shots.
FIT - How well horse fits today's distance and surface. Will get highlighted in pink if it is 50 or lower which could be something to look at for long-shots switching surfaces. Otherwise you want this to be high.
FWR - Fitness work-out rating. This is only important for lightly raced horses or horses returning from a layoff of 90 days or more. Those factors show up in form cycle.
TJR - Trainer & jockey ratings. Also very important particularly for maidens or for horses first off a claim. Looks at multiple factors including trainer angles, trainer/jockey combination, jockey preferred surface, etc.
FC - Form cycle tells you if horse is making first, second or third start lifetime (1L, 2L, 3L); first, second or third start after a 90 day layoff (1, 2, 3); first, second or third start off a claim (C1, C2, C3); dropping in class (d); or gets surface rebound flag if eligible to improve when returning to preferred surface (sr).
Commentary for top horses in the race with specific positive & concerning factors spiked out.
Bottom Line - Win bet is usually the "A" horse but not always. Win bet will also indicate whether this is a "strong" opinion or a "soft" opinion. May also say "pass" if no clear value stand-out exists. You might also consider passing if VAL for horse is not strong. Serials will suggest horses to include on serial wagers. It will then spike out back-up horses such as positive value "C" horses or horses with the surface rebound flag (sr) that could be used budget permitting in exotic wager tickets.