Fountain of Youth


Our second 50 point Triple Crown prep of the season is the final race of a superb Gulfstream Park card.  This race has a very short run into first turn causing problems for mid-pack horses drawn to the outside.  It also has a short stretch run to the first finish line which favors front runners.  The race is not loaded with speed, so without even looking at pps yet, favor speed horses that are drawn well.

1. Drain the Clock - Good draw & tactical speed.  Undefeated horse second fastest in this race but stretching out to 8.5F.  Pedigree looks fine.  Excellent connections are profitable all around.  Zayas choose this horse over the #7.  Strong selection at a decent price.

2. Prime Factor - No excuse versus Greatest Honor in Holy Bull.  But off that effort, horse could be overlaid today.  Irad stays on board and horse could improve in second start 3yo campaign,  3rd lifetime & 2nd route.  Good speed and draw.  $900K horse.  Watch the tote.

3. Sososubtle - Cheap sprinter pedigree doesn't inspire confidence but horse ran huge going a mile in first start on dirt.  Paco gets back on board and connections have positive ROI.  At 20-1, this horse is a viable long-shot.  Good draw & speed.  Negatives are the slow early pace of last race with LASIX on against FL breds.

4. Fire at Will - Horse on top of sheet due to classy wins on Turf but gets PFDS% of 0.4 at a short price.  One win on dirt was rained off turf and had only 4 horses in it.  Pedigree is all turf.  Also coming off a layoff with a N for Fitness (average work-outs).  No thanks.

5. Jirafales - Deep closer was no match for Holy Bull field and is too slow.  Easy toss,

6. King's Ovation - Another deep closer that got crushed by Drain the Clock.  Lanerie/Romans do well together.  This one could improve 2nd start of season with a bullet work-out.  Might be useable underneath in 3rd or 4th.

7. Tarantino - This horse ran really well in Holy Bull.  Was on the pace and held on much better than Prime Factor.  That was first start on dirt and gets jockey upgrade.  Might get ignored in the betting again so certainly playable.  Caution, wide trip possible into first turn.

8. Greatest Honor - Crushed the Holy Bull field as a deep closer with superior ENERGY score.  Horse was eligible to improve in that race and may not today.  Conditions still don't favor the horse (short stretch).  Could be a big favorite again and one of speed horses may beat him.  I do expect him to close well and finish no worse than 3rd.

9. Tiz Tact Toe - Slow horse, still a maiden, tries dirt for first time after being gelded.  Adds blinkers.  No thanks.

10.  Papetu - Well beaten in Holy Bull with a bad draw today.  Heavily raced and didn't run by Prime Factor who should improve today.  Toss.

Bottom Line - The two big question marks are #4 Fire at Will & #2 Prime Factor.  If they are one of top 3 betting choices in the race...toss.  If one of them drifts up in price to ~8-1, consider, but that is unlikely.  #8 Greatest Honor makes sense but is the favorite and is certainly beatable by a speed horse that gets a perfect trip.  Candidates for that speed horse are the #1, #2, #3 or #7.  #7 beat the #2 in Holy Bull and will likely be a longer price.  Zayas chooses the undefeated #1 over the #7.  #3 is likely too slow early.  My pick is the #1.  Good luck!