The Charting Horse Value handicapping report grid helps identify horses with both strong win potential and positive return on investment (ROI). We focus on horses that rank first in one or more key factors: AW%, PFIG, BFIG, ENY, ES, LS, TJR, FWR, and VAL. By isolating top-ranked horses in each category, we can measure their actual win percentage and ROI over time, revealing which factors are most predictive and profitable.

Next, we examine factor combinations—horses that are best in race in multiple categories. For example, a horse ranking first in both TJR and FWR, or BFIG and ENY, may signal a higher probability of winning and stronger betting value. Comparing single-factor leaders versus multi-factor standouts allows us to build a more robust, data-driven approach to race selection and bankroll management.

Now let's look at two factor combinations.  There are 36 possible combinations of these 9 factors.  The best two factor combination is TJR-FWR, which is quite surprising when you consider fitness work-out rating (FWR) by itself was by far the weakest.   Sample size is 276 which is significant with +12% positive ROI.  The second best two factor combination is Best Figure (BFIG) and Energy (ENY) with 43% winners and sample size of 437.  I have not created any flags for this yet but that's on my list of things to do.  Just showing everyone the data right now for you to study for yourself.  

Next step is to incorporate this into our letter grade algorithm (which right now is mostly based on modeled win probability) to differentiate horses that have positive ROI. We might also just expand our PLUS (+) screen to incorporate valuable highest rank factor combinations. 

Math is powerful!

AW% reflects a horse’s adjusted modeled win rate under similar conditions, while PFIG and BFIG capture performance figures that summarize speed and form. ENY and ES highlight early pace and energy distribution, and LS focuses on late speed and finishing power. TJR evaluates trainer–jockey effectiveness, FWR measures recent fitness and work-out readiness, and VAL estimates betting value relative to the adjusted morning line odds.

By tracking how first-ranked horses in these metrics perform, and then layering combinations—such as top ENY plus top LS plus top TJR (3-factor combination) we can pinpoint situations where the probability of winning and ROI align. This structured analysis turns the grid table into a practical tool for identifying high-percentage, value-oriented plays across different race types and conditions.

First let's look at this table filtered for clean condition and non-maiden races.  Clean condition means the race was fast or firm on the original planned surface.  We also remove maidens where many of these factors are incomplete based on limited data.  This removes noise from the analysis.  There are 1,482 races in this analysis which is a significant number. You can see by themselves, AW%, Energy (ENY) and Performance Figure (PFIG) have the biggest impact on probability of winning.  But Trainer Jockey Rating (TJR), Energy (ENY) & Best Figure (BFIG) have the best ROI; although all stilll negative.  

Finally, let's look at three factor combinations.  Sample sizes start to get small.  I'm showing the top-15 3-factor combinations based on ROI.  Notice how strong the actual Win% gets when you put 3 or more of these top ranked factors together.  Most are north of 50% win probability.

For example, ENY-LS-TJR has 164 horses with 55% win rate and +21% profitable ROI.

Notice that AW% doesn't show up until the 15th best ROI combination despite it being the best individual factor at predicting winner. 

You'll also notice that BFIG, TJR and ENY are the 3 most important factors at generating a positive ROI.  TJR & ENY made sense.  The fact that BFIG performed so much better than PFIG to get positive ROI was shocking but that's the truth!