Sam F Davis


The prep for the Tampa Bay Derby is part of an excellent card with 4 graded stakes.  If you look at the sheet screen shot below, the Sam F Davis looks fairly chalky with the top horses also being the four morning line favorites.  This doesn't look like a race to go for a deep longshot.

We have a full field going 8.5F around two turns.  The pace will be honest.

1. Hidden Stash - Weak trainer 0 for 47 in graded stakes. Does show up 5th overall in sheet off NW1x win @CD.  Energy of 90 fits, use underneath

2. Joe Man Joe - Beaten badly by several in here including #1.  Improved in last two races but still too slow on Energy.

3. Known Agenda - Beat Greatest Honor in a MSW race and then badly beaten in sloppy Remsen.  Speed figures are best in field (94 Energy).  Solid works for return and may get bet down in odds.

4. Millean - Good connections but horse started on grass.  Won when switched to dirt in MCL race as the favorite with LASIX on.  Not for me.

5. Smiley Sobotka - On top of sheet with A+ grade.  Loses Leparoux which may be a good thing.  Had lead late in KY Jockey Club race losing by less than a length to Keepmeinmind.  Comes in off a very fast 4F work-out.

6. Runway Magic - Stretches out for first time and pedigree looks sprint oriented. Will be patiently ridden and may pass tiring horses late.

7. Boca Boy - This horse figures to get the lead relatively easy and then will try to slow it down.  Both wins on sloppy tracks and horse is very modestly bred.  Trainer is not at this level yet but love the jockey.  Will take them far but should tire late.

8. Nova Rags - Won the Pasco in modest time with LASIX on.  Now tries to stretch-out and price won't be great for Mott horse.

9. Candy Man Rocket - Looks interesting on the sheet with 93 Energy and "23" form cycle.  Huge 9 length win on 1/9 going 6F with LASIX on.  Now stretches out for Mott but Velasquez opts for #3.  Alvarado profitable with Mott and I like the upside on this one over the #8.

10. Ricochet - Took 4 starts to break maiden wire 2 wire in cheap TAMPA MSW race.  Doesn't have speed to go with #7 and should lose badly.

11. Lucky Law - Broke maiden on turf for a horse with a turf pedigree.  Tough draw.  They are taking a shot here on the dirt but could only see using far underneath.

12. Last Investment - Still a maiden and beaten convincingly by Richochet.

13. Tiz Tact Toe - Also eligible.  Has run only on turf with turf pedigree.  Still a maiden and claimed in last race which he lost with LASIX on.  Now runs first time blinkers & first time gelded.  No thanks.

Bottom line - I like the field 3,5,7,9,8,1 in that order.  I would only use #1 underneath.  #9 is the long shot play.  #3 is most likely winner and great value at morning line (but odds may drop).  I would use 3,5,7 and may be 9 in serial wagers.  Good luck.