San Felipe


An important Santa Anita 50 point Derby Prep this weekend although many of the horses have already faced each other and a few horses are opting for out of state preps.  With that said, there is some legitimate early pace in the race which could be troubling for the favorite.

1. Life is Good - Highly thought of and one of the Future wager favorites.  Had Sham stakes all to himself before losing focus or tiring late.  I think it was the former but regardless, horse is very over rated off meager campaign.  Second fastest on ENERGY and will get pressure early from The Great One on pace.  Have to think Medina Spirit (the other Bullet Baffert horse) will not force a hot pace early against stable mate.

2. Dream Shake - Stretches out off nice maiden win.  Now in against much tougher and drops LASIX.  Certainly can improve and will have some pace to run at but I would demand high odds which you won't get.

3. Medina Spirit - Nice pair of 6F drills.  This horse is very game.  Never gave up against Life is Good in Sham and held off a pair of foes while saving ground in Robert Lewis.  Think this one is a cut below Life is Good and has less upside.

4. None Above the Law - Very high on sheet with tremendous value but I need to dig into my sheet math to understand why.  The Cal-bred efforts are against weaker and his ENERGY is much slower.  Off the clock alone he finished 1.5L behind a time identical to Medina Spirit in Robert Lewis.  Going to pass.

5. The Great One - Lost by a nose to Spielburg in G2 race while still a long-shot maiden.  Then came back and broke maiden with LASIX on at 8-5.  This horse will go to the lead and force Life is Good to take back at the rail.  Horse capable of laying down very fast fractions and giving Life is Good a target to chase.  Doubt he will hold off the closers.

6. Governor's Party - Don't understand why this horse is entered.  Was 100-1 in El Camino Real and this race is much tougher.  Toss.

7. Roman Centurion - Nice closer for race & ran awesome in Robert Lewis.  But less eligible for improvement today.  Was badly beaten by Life is Good as maiden and despite quick pace failed to run by Medina Spirit.  Think this horse has a good shot to hit the board in 2nd or 3rd.

Bottom Line - Very difficult to see Life is Good losing unless The Great One gets away on easy lead.  Realistically Life is Good passes The Great One and holds off the closers for an easy win.  Very hard to predict who will take second so I will pass on this race.