Saratoga Factor Analysis Results
Saratoga 7/3/26 Key Factor Performance Review
On the July 3, 2026 Saratoga card, we evaluated how our nine core handicapping factors performed in live racing: W%, PFIG, BFIG, ENY, ES, LS, TJR, FWR, and VAL. We first isolated horses ranked 1st in each factor to measure stand‑alone profitability, then examined all 2‑ and 3‑factor combinations. The results were outstanding, with 7 of 9 factors showing independent profits and several combinations delivering exceptional returns. Below we summarize the performance of top‑ranked horses and highlight which factor clusters produced the most reliable and scalable edges.

Looking at table above, only Best Fig (BFIG) and Late Speed (LS) under performed. With ES having +74% ROI with only 3 winners and LS underperforming we likely had an early speed bias yesterday. Fitness Work-out Rating (FWR) is a factor that normally underperforms but historically at Saratoga is exceptionally strong. It didn't disappoint yesterday with 45% winners and +261% ROI (nearly quadrupling your money). The modeled Win % (W%), which takes into account every factor and more, performed admirably.
Now let's look at some important two factor combinations. These horses ranked first in each of these two categories. Not surprisingly the ES-FWR combination was 2 for 2. Both of those horses also ranked first in Trainer Jockey Rating (TJR). I'll let you peruse the table in detail for yourself
Finally, I looked at horses that ranked first in 3 or more of the 9 categories above. Guess what, 14 horses qualified in the 11 races. If you bet them all, 6 won (43%) for a +124% return on investment (ROI). Let's do it again today!
Single‑factor leaders in W%, PFIG, ENY, ES, TJR, FWR and VAL all generated positive ROI when bet blindly across the card, confirming the predictive strength we discussed yesterday. From there, we moved to 2- and 3‑factor intersections, focusing on horses that ranked 1st in multiple categories. These combinations produced higher hit rates, stronger average mutuels, and smoother profit curves. In the next tables and breakdowns, we will detail which factor pairings were most efficient, how often they appeared, and how they can be integrated into a practical Saratoga wagering strategy going forward.


