Beholder Mile 2024


A sucker for a G1 race named after Beholder.  The pace of the race looks fair.  There are no real speed burners.  You'll see 2 "F" horses and 2 strong "T" horses in the chart above.   It will be an advantage to be on or close to the lead.

1. Coffee in Bed - Was game in last losing to Desert Dawn and is eligible to improve 2nd start of 4yo year but looks way too slow on the ENERGY scale to support.

2. Adare Manor - Dominated SOCAL in 2023 beating Desert Dawn multiple times.  Finished 7th in Distaff but only beaten 3 lengths.  Baffert will have her ready for the comeback and is the horse to beat with K+ letter grade.

3. Green Up - Very highly regarded Pletcher horse at age 3 beating Interstatedaydream.  But after losing Cotillion only raced twice at age 4.  Obviously has some issues but this is a horse capable of firing fresh and may be the biggest threat to Adare Manor.

4. Desert Dawn - Coming from mid-pack against better horses is hard to endorse.  I would fade this horse.

5. InterstateDayDream - The other Pletcher ran almost exclusively in listed stakes last year.  4-1 is too short a price to take on this horse and is an easy fade.

6. Sweet Azteca - Can't make sense of the 3-1 M/L at all.  This horse has never raced around two turns.  Drops Lasix after winning a cheap optional claiming event.  Beaten without Lasix in a G3.  An easier fade than the #5.

7. Kirstenbosch - Highest VALUE score in the race.  Beaten 4.5 lengths by Adare Manar last year but she finished ahead of Desert Dawn in same race.  Ran a good 5th in F&M Sprint last year.  The 7F sprint prep this year is useful and blinkers in last four races appear to be helpful.  I like this horse a lot underneath at double digit odds.

8. TurnerLoose - Horse has no business in this race and should be well beaten

9. Window Shopping - Has never beaten a horse of the caliber she faces here.

Bottom Line - Adare Manor is a very likely winner but her price will be well short of 5-2.  Green Up is capable of an upset at age 5.  She was among the best of her class at age 3 and her 4yo races are useful.  Kirstenbosch is the horse to use underneath to bring value to the Exacta.   Fade InterstateDayDream and Sweet Azteca.  Good luck folks #CHV.