El Camino Real
Soft place in my heart for Golden Gate but the racing product has declined badly and the track now is synthetic. They are lucky to have this prep but it will be difficult to handicap with so many trying the surface for the first time. The pace is also soft and the track favors horses near the lead but not necessarily on the lead.
1. Positivity - No match for Petruchio 2-back and beaten badly by Cal breds in last. Now this slow colt gets a surface switch. Toss.
2. Waspirant - Also slow and badly beaten by Rombauer. His best could get him into Super.
3. Tesoro - Maiden win over the track in very slow time. Eligible to improve in 2nd start of career. Horse likely goes for lead early but may not last until the finish. Has a bullet work for this and is an interesting long shot candidate.
4. It's My House - Very modestly bred sprinter and loses Frey to Rombauer. Toss
5. Petruchio - One of two horses with good ENERGY levels. Nice 3rd in graded stakes and good form on turf suggests synthetic track will pose no issues. Has tactical speed to save ground and get first run on the closers. Contender.
6. Play Chicken - Good connections but horse looks too slow. Does have a maiden win on the turf so use underneath.
7. Javanica - A filly going against the boys. She looks a tad slow but had good listed stakes form on both synthetic & turf. Trainer is flat bet profitable at this level. Useable underneath but price is not good.
8. Governor's Party - Not sure why this horse is 50-1 but certainly a long-shot. Badly beaten by Play Chicken but improved with win over track in starter allowance. A toss.
9. Rombauer - Respectable 5th in BC Juvenile and has a maiden win on DMR Turf. Picks up Frey with bullet works for his return. This one makes sense but will be EVEN money and closer running style hurts his chances.
Bottom Line - Either Petruchio or Rombauer wins this race. The value in race is Petruchio. Also take a stand against Waspirant. Use Javanica, Play Chicken and Tesero underneath in vertical exotics. Best long-shot is probably Tesero who hasn't proven he sucks yet.