Fitness Work-out Rating (FWR)
Going to dig into a horse's Fitness Work-out Rating and find out how to leverage the information to our advantage.
In the previous version of the Charts, I had a simple Fitness Rating with a Q or N result....binary! It looked at days since last race and a horse's work-out pattern/times to determine if the horse was ready to run to its relative ability. The result fed into PFDS% and ultimate PFDS Odds but in a very small way.
I've had on the back-burner a new more comprehensive way to analyze a horse's fitness level and it is now in place for about a month and a half. Not an eternity but let's dig into the data and then keep an eye on this going forward. I want to do a similar blog like this every week. Next one I'm planning is on TJR!
First of all, Fitness Work-out Rating (FWR) doesn't apply broadly to every horse or at every moment in a horse's journey. Looking at a sample size of over 4,000 horses in clean condition (Fast, Firm and on original surface) thoroughbred races, the horse with the Top FWR in a race won 16.7% of the time for a -23% ROI at average post time odds (PTO) of 10.7-1.
That's not good! But what happens when we look at FWR in conjunction with other parameters and in particular in specific points in a horse's form cycle.
Let's isolate in on how the raw FWR impacts a horse's success. Filtered on horses with top FWR, as FWR increases, there is almost zero impact on the Actual Win% but the ROI definitely improves. There is some fall-off on the ROI at very high FWR but sample size is lower. The sweet spot is actually FWR of 110-120 where the ROI is nearly break even at -0.6% with a sample of 433 horses. And if we drill in further we can refine it further to the band of 115-120 which is profitable but sample size is too small. Let's file this conclusion away for now!
Now let's look at FWR by race type. Maiden and Claiming clearly outperform allowance and stakes races. Maiden is very intuitive but Claiming wasn't. And I was shocked out how poorly top FWR performed in stakes races. Let's keep that in mind as we wager on horses. Drilling into the FWR 115-120 sweet spot (graphic to the right) we confirm again that Maiden and Claiming races are where we can isolate profitable horses.
Now let's dig into form cycle (FC). This graphic is filtered for maiden & claiming races for horses with top FWR of at least 100. A blank FC is particularly bad! Horse's are profitable with the form cycle codes of 1 & 2 (first or 2nd race off a layoff of at least 90 days); 1L & 2L (first or 2nd race lifetime) and C1 (first off a claim). This makes sense! Any time we can get a positive result with sufficient sample size that is logical we need to press further.
Okay, let's go back to where we started and make sure the FWR of 100+ is an appropriate filter. We are now filtered for top FWR, maiden & claiming races, with one of the five FC flags. Now we can see the ROI definitively improving with the inflection point at 100+ and now huge profits in the 110-120 band.
Let's put it all together now and search for price horses with a minimum AML of 4-1. We will also drop off any horses with an AML north of 30-1. Now we have a sample size of 277 (solid) with an actual ROI of +53%. And this applies to all horses regardless of any other factors. Going forward you will see a new PLUS (+) on the letter grade (even toss horses) that have this unique FWR screen. I will be adding future screens over the next few weeks to this PLUS (+) flag.
Combining Top FWR, regardless of how high the raw FWR score is, with another top ranking does improve the Win% and ROI. Especially for horses with a top Trainer Jockey Rating (TJR) or top Early Speed (ES). Still not profitable but at -5.1% you are breaking even with rebates and 682 races is a large sample size.
Let's apply that form cycle knowledge and look at the results again by race type. Top ranked FWR of 100+ with form cycle (FC) flags of 1, 2, 1L, 2L, or C1. The allowance and stakes races remain weak. Maiden and Claiming remain profitable with claiming now performing exceptional.
Let's see how it did yesterday 7/21/26. Only one horse all day met the new FWR value screen. It was a maiden special weight race at Delaware (6th race). A first time starter #8 Oak Brook Lady had a FWR of 106 with an AML of 10-1. That's a fit! Horse won at 15-1 odds. Booyah!
