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Races of the Day
Watch today’s featured race breakdowns and spot the value before post time.
Featured race analysis
Del Mar Race 2
Jeff Bessa uses Charting Horse Value to break down Del Mar Race 2 and explains why #5 Balnikhov leads the model in win probability, Late Speed, class figures and Trainer/Jockey Rating—then turns those signals into a practical wagering approach.
Key moments
- 0:00 · Del Mar Race 2 overview
- 0:54 · Finding the race with Search and 1xS
- 1:21 · Why Balnikhov is the most likely winner
- 2:44 · Wagering confidence, Pace, 1xS and HxS
- 3:15 · Comparing None Above the Law and other alternatives
- 3:45 · Energy, Margin and handicapping notes
- 5:14 · PFIG and distance-surface FIT review
- 5:47 · Trainer/Jockey Rating and layoffs
- 6:15 · Building the final wager
- 7:03 · Del Mar Race 2 recap
Read the September 5 video transcript
0:01Hello, everyone. This is Jeff Bessa from Charting Horse Value. Lots of things to communicate today. We’re going to do a Race of the Day at Del Mar.
0:11We’re going to look at Race 2. I’ll show you how we get there in a second. You can still click at the top to go directly to our website.
0:19The website has been completely overhauled and is much more valuable and user-friendly.
0:27We have tutorials, articles, the glossary, and Races of the Day like this one.
0:34The glossary is available in the app. We went through that last time.
0:43We still have the classic reports you can print and take to the track, plus the Excel file if you want to track results and develop your own algorithms.
0:54Today we’ll start on the Search page, select Del Mar, and choose today’s date.
1:02For today’s purpose, we’re looking at the 1xS score. This identifies races where we may be able to go skinny or single.
1:11When you see a score above four, as in Del Mar Race 2, that can indicate a possible single for serial exotic wagers.
1:21We’ll open Del Mar Race 2, which takes us immediately to the most likely winner: Balnikhov.
1:30Balnikhov is stretching out, but that should be favorable because the horse has great Late Speed and an S1 running style.
1:37This race is 11 furlongs on turf, so Late Speed is useful.
1:44Balnikhov shows +18 Value at a 3-1 morning line.
1:47Let’s hope we get that 3-1 morning line. The horse has a 41.5% modeled win probability and earns a K grade.
1:54K horses are winning at about 45% to 46% right now. Balnikhov is also dropping in class.
2:02Several factors rank first, including modeled win probability, PFIG, BFIG, and Trainer/Jockey Rating.
2:11Energy is a little weaker. The fair-odds calculation is about 1.44-1, while the morning line is 3-1.
2:20The jockey assignment also supports the case.
2:27The only negative is the track-switch note, shown by the small asterisk. It means the horse is unproven over more than one track and is switching today.
2:35That is the only negative.
2:40Other than that, this horse is extremely positive.
2:44The race has a 4.6 wagering-confidence score on a zero-to-five scale, which is very high.
2:50The projected Pace score is 6, which is neutral.
2:58At the bottom line, Balnikhov has a 1xS score of 4.3 and the race has an HxS score of 2.8.
3:06HxS indicates how likely the race is to offer a chance to beat the favorites with horses that rank highly in modeled win probability.
3:15The other suggested horse is None Above the Law, who ranks second in modeled win probability.
3:24None Above the Law has several factor rankings of two and three and is the alternate horse to consider.
3:30For a neutral-pace race, I also like to sort on Energy. Stamp My Passport has the top Early Speed, but is stretching out, which may not be favorable.
3:39That stretch-out may work against Stamp My Passport.
3:45When I sort on Energy, I use Margin to identify horses within five points of the top Energy rating.
3:52Path to Power has the turf-route angle and is also stretching out.
3:59This could be a useful horse to include in vertical exotic wagers.
4:06You can easily make a note by clicking near the top of the horse’s card.
4:11We do not like this horse’s running style.
4:22None Above the Law remains the backup win choice.
4:30Amplitude also has the turf-route angle, is stretching out, and is within 1.2 points on Energy. Balnikhov remains within three points on Energy.
4:57I’m making notes here to show how easy it is to do.
5:01This horse has the unfavorable running style and is stretching out, so it is a toss. We can hide the horse.
5:07This horse also looks too slow. An Energy rating of 5.9 is slow, so we can hide that horse.
5:14That covers Energy. We can also review PFIG. When I examine PFIG, I pay particular attention to FIT.
5:21This is an 11-furlong turf race, so distance-and-surface fit matters. We see FIT scores of 87 and 80 on horses stretching out.
5:30The next FIT score is 76, followed by a lower score of 60.
5:35We already did not like this horse’s running style, and the FIT score is only 60, so we can hide that horse.
5:42Another turf-route horse has a 75 FIT score.
5:47The control at the bottom takes us back to the top. Now we’ll look at Trainer/Jockey Rating and the layoff information.
5:56Balnikhov is coming off a 56-day layoff, but the Trainer/Jockey Rating is superb, so I’m not concerned.
6:09The other horses show layoffs of 34, 28, and 35 days.
6:15Back at the bottom line, the app suggests using the 5 and 6, with the 4, 7, and 2 as possible backups.
6:25I eliminated the 4. The 7 does look useful in vertical wagers, and the 2 does as well.
6:31The wagering decision is whether to use Balnikhov strictly on top with the 2, 6, and 7 underneath,
6:40or to use the 5 and 6 on top with the 2 and 7 underneath.
6:51You can record the wager in a note, such as a 5 with 2, 6, and 7 exacta.
7:03That is our look at Del Mar Race 2. Let’s go, Balnikhov. Take care.
Previous race analysis
Saratoga Race of the Day Video 9/4/26
See how Jeff identifies Saratoga Race 3 as a serial-exotic opportunity, then uses pace, Energy, connections, modeled win probability and Value to build a primary 3-5-7 approach.
More key moments and full transcript
0:00Hello everybody. It's Jeff Bessa, Charting Horse Value. We're going to do a race of the day video on Saratoga. We're going to be looking at race three.
0:09Show you how we get there in a second.
0:12Um, first of all, I want to make sure everyone knows about this new Glossary page uh where you can it'll go through
0:19race conditions, grades, and form model factors, wager scores. You show you how you could take notes yourself and a link to our tutorial videos.
0:30And so this is really useful. You can see the race conditions, confidence, pace, grades and form cycle, grade suffixes,
0:39form cycle annotations, the green form cycle combo with 10 exact form cycle combinations
0:47that generate profitable ROI. I'm going to be doing an article on this soon.
0:51running style, cutbacks, stretch outs, the various model factors explained,
1:00including fitness workout, trainer, jockey rating, the target race scores. HxS is how
1:08likely are you able to beat the favorites in the race using model win percentage and how likely are you to hit
1:18the race going skinny or a single in the race. So these are good rate target race scores especially for serial wagers. You
1:26hand we we'll show you how you do these notes during the video and then a link to the tutorial. Okay, so the Glossary is really important. All
1:35right. From the search page, today we're going to click on Saratoga, and we're going to click on today's
1:42state, Friday, and we're going to use the both score. So, this is looking for the highest combined
1:49HxS and 1xS race at Saratoga. And that race is Saratoga race 3 with a score of 6.7, which is actually not very high.
2:01So, none of the races today have a very high score. And the most likely winner is Baby Yoda. So, we're going to click on that race and it's going to take us to the detail of Baby Yoda.
2:13Now, Baby Yoda has a run at 224-day layoff, long layoff, and it's 3:1 morning line.
2:20That's a concern. Yes, this is a drop in class. That's why the horse is a likely winner with the best PFIG, the best win percentage, but it's a long layoff and
2:29it's a short price. Okay. Um, if you go down to the bottom, you'll see that the
2:37HxS is 4.4, meaning this is a race to try to beat the top three morning line favorites. The 1XS is 2.3, which is very
2:46neutral, not a very strong race to go skinny. So, this might be a race where we spread and try to beat the favorites.
2:54Let's go to the top. It's a six-furlong race on the dirt. very neutral confidence, slow pace.
3:03That's a factor. The most likely winner, as we said, was Baby Yoda. But let's take a look at the the the early speed.
3:11Now, we get the horse with the best pace situation. First off, a claim, best early speed for Norm Cassie with Manuel Franco up.
3:22No major concerns.
3:25This horse is a must-use value.
3:31I basically click on this screen. I can put in my my my note. The second fastest
3:38horse is Super Tuscin. Also has a good BFIG. Zas sub with Safy off a 55-day layoff.
3:48That's a little long.
3:50Um but horse fits. The price is low 3.5-to-1 and horse has negative9 of value. If
3:58I use this horse, it would be defensive.
4:04Baby Yoda, we already looked at it. Long layoff.
4:09I'm going to fade this horse even as the top win chance. Run classic 12-to-1 morning line.
4:18Positive value.
4:20Not as strong early speed. more of a closer but very good energy expanding. This is with Wayne Pototts
4:28and JJ Catalano 23-day layoff. The slow pace stock concerned that is the issue.
4:35Um so question of slow pace hurts but very good value pair of socks 20-to-1 morning line.
4:46Nothing positive here. P3 running style, poor early speed, poor win chance.
4:52That's a fade. Trust issues. Does have a high fitness workout rating, but horses coming off a 16-day layoff. I don't think that's relevant.
5:05And only a four point. That's a fade.
5:08Shoot the nickel. Has the dedicated exact trainer/jockeying angle, which is profitable. the number one trainer
5:15jockey rating in the race off a seven-day layoff with Josea Finda.
5:22You got to use this horse.
5:25Use commuted. This is the badgative -39 of
5:31value 1.8-to-1 fade.
5:38inexorable, poor early speed with very low slow pace.
5:45First off, a claim for a bad trainer/jockey rating. This is a toss.
5:50So, let's look back over this now. Let's take a look at energy now and let's put it on margin and let's look for horses that were within five points. So, Run
5:58Classic has the best energy but might be hurt by the slow pace, but great morning line, great value. I'm I'm going to use that horse. Baby Yoda is the most likely
6:08winner, but off a long layoff if you use this horse is it's just when you're spreading.
6:15Super Tuskkins within 1.4 points. Kind of a short price. Also a defensive horse to use. Mischievous within two points.
6:23Must use value. Shoot the nickel. Use with the trainer/jockey rating and the trainer/jockey angle. Commuted within 4.4 points. Barely qualifying.
6:34So, not even that fast. Uh, this is definitely a fade all the way. So, we didn't get much extra value out of looking at the the energy. Um, for sake
6:44of time, I'm going to skip to the trainer/jockey rating. Again, shoot the nickel. Top trainer/jockey rating. seven-day layoff. That is a quick turnaround.
6:55We already saw that jockey. Now, the number two trainer/jockey is another Linda Rice horse with Santana up.
7:02And we're fading this one. So, we're using the longer shot trainer/jockey rating or I'm sorry, the longer priced
7:10Linda Rice horse. Uh, every this horse, like we said, 55-day layoff. We already talked about this one, 224 day layoff.
7:19So, how do we play it? Let's go back to win percentage.
7:26If I use the four, it's defensive. Same thing with the one. It's defensive. But you definitely want to use the seven, the three, and the five.
7:39And if you bet this race to win, I would bet one of those three horses, the three, the five, or the seven. And I would use all three of those horses, uh,
7:47if I was spreading. Now, if you go down to the bottom, they don't mention the five at all. So, this is a shortcut.
7:54It's not perfect. It's throwing the the four in there defensively. It's throwing the Baby Yoda in there defensively. It has the seven of three and then based on
8:03the early speed, I'm recommending using this five. So use the 357, use the 14
8:10defensively if your budget permits. And if you're betting it to win, I would probably bet either the four, the three,
8:19or the five. I'm sorry, the seven, the three, or the five. Tough tough bet race to bet to win with confidence, but a great race to use in serial exotics.
8:29Thanks everybody.