Lexington Stakes 2024


Going to squeeze another blog in and capture the final Kentucky Derby prep of the year, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.  Going to handicap this exclusively off the charts which tell a very complete story.  The track has been playing kindly to horses within 1 length of the early lead and I expect that to continue today.  Horses drawn inside (posts 1-2) also have advantage winning 6 of 14 route races this week.

1. Secret Chat - Eligible to improve with "23" form cycle.  Gets a good post position for the stretch-out and 92 ENERGY is 2nd best in race.  Earns a "C" so can be considered for the win.  Long-shot chance.

2. The Wine Steward - Returns from 6 month layoff with solid "Q" works.  PFDS% is "1" which is very good.  ENERGY of 95 is best in the race.  Gets four RANKS of "1" and the K+ with $9 of VALUE.  Great post draw with tactical Early Speed (ES) Very logical horse to win this and 2-1 represents a good price.

3. Dilger - Does get the rank of "2" for jockey/trainer combination but other than that appears hopeless in ENERGY and PFDS Odds.  Toss.

4. Footprint - Does improve to 6.8-1 on BEST Odds earning $4 of VALUE.  89 ENERGY is a little slow but will be closing some late.  Not impossible underneath.

5. Hades - At 7-2 is a big underlay with PFDS Odds of 7.3-1.  Broke slowly in last and not a given to do any differently today.  Toss.

6. How's Ur Attitude - A big long-shot and 30-1 is an underlay.  Toss.

7. Everdoit (SCRATCHED)

8. Encino - Earns a "C" due to best Jockey/Trainer combination in the race.   Improves significantly to 7.8-1 on BEST Odds.  A closer that can pick up some pieces but will play against on top.

9. Liberal Arts - 2nd on chart and 4-1 M/L is a fair price with PFDS Odds at 3.7-1.  Definitely a contender but prefer underneath with his closing running style.

10. Lucky Jeremy - Don't love the draw but great early speed and figures to be on the lead early with the "T9" in pace column.  Gets the "C" letter grade with $10 of VALUE.  There is an old blog that says take the letter grade with the greatest VALUE and this horse qualifies on that barely.

Bottom Line - You either need to single #2, Wine Steward on top or press that horse more heavily.  The other horses to consider on top are #1, Secret Chat and #10, Lucky Jeremy who both have good tactical speed.  Use both of them underneath as well.  Others that can be used underneath only are #4 Footprint (3rd or worse), #8 Encino or #9 Liberal Arts.  Toss Hades.  Good luck folks #CHV