Pace (updated)


Pace is the "P" in PFDS and is accounted for in the PFDS ODDS but sometimes people want to see the figures for themselves....

But be careful about using the Pace figures.  First of all, don't talk yourself off of a VALUE horse just because of your analysis of the race shape.  Second, use them if you are playing Trifectas.  Handicapping for 3rd is totally different than for 1st and the Pace figures will help.

The Pace column shows a horse's preferred running style:  F for front runner, T for tactical (a horse that can lay close or win up front), M for mid-pack, C for closer, U is Unknown.  The number next to the letter shows the likelihood of horse being on the early lead at 1st call in past performances (e.g. 4 is 40-49% and 8 is 80-89%).  F & T runners dominate dirt races in America.  You can get a good idea for race shape by studying this column.

A horse that gets a 5 has average 1st call speed, nothing special.  High speed horses will get 8.

The ES (early speed) and LS (late speed) columns are an algorithm based on BRISNET EP/LP ratings adjusted for recency, distance, surface & form cycle.  ES is very important in dirt sprints and LS is very important in turf routes.

A horse that can get an easy lead has a distinct advantage and if you can get a price for a horse like that, go for it!