RACE OF THE DAY · SEPTEMBER 26, 2026

Lukas Classic: Picks, Analysis & Wagering Strategy

Churchill Downs Race 10 · A rare Both 9.1 target built around #4 Banishing.

CHV turns modeled win probability, value, pace, Energy, FIT and target-race scores into a focused Lukas Classic wagering plan.

The CHV read

#4 Banishing is the primary win selection. The K-grade runner carries a 44.5% modeled win probability, +32.8 Value and a 6–1 morning line in a nine-furlong dirt race with CONF 4.8 and Pace 6. The combined target score of 9.1 makes this an unusually strong race to build around.

Wagering approach

• Win: #4 Banishing
• Exacta key: #4 with #2 and #5
• Daily Double: #4 with #1, #8 and #9 in Race 11

Video chapters

• 0:00 · Finding the strongest graded-stakes target
• 0:50 · Race conditions
• 1:11 · Why Banishing stands out
• 2:19 · Main contenders
• 3:11 · Energy, FIT and layoffs
• 4:21 · Why a Both score of 9.1 is rare
• 4:39 · Win and exacta structure
• 4:58 · Daily Double setup
• 5:41 · Final Daily Double targets

Why this race qualified

A high modeled win probability matters most when price, pace suitability and several independent factors support it. Banishing combines the strongest probability read with a large positive Value signal, making him the logical anchor.

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