Charting Horse Value
Race breakdowns, handicapping lessons, model results, and practical ways to find value before the betting public does.
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Follow Jeff Bessa as he applies the Charting Horse Value model to major races, current cards, and real wagering decisions.
A $24.60 winner, two targeted Daily Doubles, and profitable Form Cycle and grade angles show how probability, price, and race context work together.
Read the results review →What 77,457 starters reveal about how closely CHV's pre-race win probabilities match actual results within 11 probability groups.
Read the research →How CHV's HxS + 1xS search found two winners and turned a $20 Woodbine opinion into a $150.40 return.
Read the analysis →What 8,065 usable sequences taught us about race quality, clean conditions, and building a more selective two-race ticket.
Read the research →How CHV used modeled win probability, Value, pace, and Late Speed to single Deterministic.
Read on Substack →How CHV identified #6 Mr. Faversham before a $34.60 win payoff and $133 exacta.
Read on Substack →See how the CHV mobile app uses pace, Late Speed, modeled win probability, and Value to analyze Del Mar's signature race.
Read on Substack →Use the CHV mobile app to evaluate pace, contenders, and value in the King's Plate.
Read on Substack →A candid review of how Charting Horse Value performed on the July 3 Saratoga card.
Read on Substack →An introduction to the faster, flexible Charting Horse Value experience.
Read on Substack →Get new CHV research by email.
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Form Cycle codes describe where a horse stands today. When several codes appear together, they can reveal improvement patterns that the betting market has historically underpriced.
Across 11,058 races, CHV's pre-race win probabilities closely matched what actually happened within 11 probability groups.
How CHV's HxS + 1xS search found two winners—and turned a $20 Woodbine opinion into $150.40.
What 8,065 sequences taught us about race quality, clean conditions, and compact ticket construction.
What K, A, B, C, and X mean—and why a horse's grade can change after scratches.
Lower-confidence races produce larger average winning payoffs. Here is how to use CONF with HxS, 1xS, modeled win probability, and Value to decide when to pass, spread, or single.
A quantitative review of where surface, distance, fitness, class, pace, and price combined to create historical win-bet value at Saratoga.
How repeatable partnership data can surface overlooked horses—and when the evidence is strong enough to change the handicap.
A horse can be talented and still fail to deliver its best race today. Fitness Work-Out Rating (FWR) is CHV's attempt to measure that readiness before the betting starts.
